Monday, November 4, 2013

OS X Mavericks Is Now Installed On More Than 10% Of Macs, Smashing Mountain Lion's Adoption Rate


If Apple decided to make updates to its OS X operating system free in part to drive more rapid consumer uptake, it was a great decision: Market adoption of its new OS X Mavericks operating system has beaten adoption of the preceding Mountain Lion version by a large margin. According to NetMarketShare, OS X Mavericks is now installed on 0.84 percent of the global PC install base, or 10.8 percent of the total OS X install base of 7.73 percent. Mavericks accomplished that in 10 days. By comparison, according to Chikita, it took Mountain Lion a month to reach that level. It's worth noting that Chikita reported Mavericks passing the 10 percent mark sooner than NetMarketShare – data of this sort is somewhat imprecise. However, we can tell, by weighing both data sources, that Mavericks has enjoyed far more rapid adoption than preceding editions of OS X. In real, or perhaps gross, terms, Mavericks has market share equivalent to essentially half of Windows 8.1 (an operating system that also launched in October), which reached 1.72 percent in the same month-period. Only Windows 8 users could update to Windows 8.1, giving the latter a market-share pool of roughly 8 percent. Mavericks, by contrast, could only draw from part of OS X's aggregate 7.73 percent market share, meaning there were fewer total machines that were able to move to Apple's new operating system. That explains why Windows 8.1 has grown its share more quickly, though the faster sales rate of Windows-based machines has certainly helped, as well. However, from a different perspective, Mavericks is spanking Windows 8.1: Apple's decision to make Mavericks free to anyone with a compatible Mac should certainly help its adoption. Available for just a few weeks, already one in ten Mac users is on 10.9; only one in 50 Windows users is in 8.1. Indeed, only one in ten Windows users is on Windows 8.x. Apple has done in a couple of weeks what Microsoft has only managed in a year. Both companies can take heart in the numbers to a certain extent. What will be interesting to watch at the end of November will be the total converted percentage for both Mavericks and Windows 8.1, and whether there is anything that we can glean from that information.

Britain's GCHQ Collaborated With Other EU Nations To Enable Broad Internet Surveillance


Today The Guardian reported that the GCHQ, Britain's NSA equivalent, worked with several foreign governments to help them tap Internet traffic and phone communications. The Swedish, French, Spanish, and German governments are said to be involved. It has been known for some time that the United States and British governments, through a number of programs such as the UK's Tempora effort, directly tap the fiber-optic cables that are the backbone of the Internet, collecting data in massive quantity. That four other countries do the same is, therefore, not surprising, but it is dispiriting. It will be far harder than we initially perhaps hoped to end this sort of mass surveillance. That the GCHQ was willing to provide what is described as “a leading role in advising its European counterparts” in how to get around legal restrictions is simply depressing. The NSA acts in a similar fashion. After it was banned from collecting data sent in between data centers of private companies on the country's soil, it started doing so overseas. Problem? Solved. Presumably the GCHQ, close cousin and partner in crime to the NSA, is teaching similar methods. Previously, James Clapper, director of National Intelligence, joked that furor over news of NSA's spying on the phone of the German Chancellor was asinine: “Some of this reminds me a lot of the classic movie ‘Casablanca': ‘My God, there's gambling going on here!'” Clapper is correct, it appears. The losers here are the regular folks who are having their Internet traffic and telephony data absorbed by more than just their own governments, but by apparently a cadre of nations working in concert to ensure that digital privacy is kaput. The GCHQ is zealous in its will to help allies get around their own law. The Guardian's quote about Holland is downright depressing: “The Dutch have some legislative issues that they need to work through before their legal environment would allow them to operate in the way that GCHQ does. We are providing legal advice on how we have tackled some of these issues to Dutch lawyers.” Frankly, I think that at this point it is reasonable to state that wholesale monitoring of the raw data that flows through the trunk cables of the web will not stop. The only solution is some sort of new encryption technique that is unhackable – though the NSA is working on ending that protection as well. It is an incredible shame that it has come to this, and that nations find it impossible to keep their hands to themselves.

11 Or 12 Things I Learned About Life From Day Trading Millions Of Dollars


I was a day trader for many years, and it almost killed me. I made money by making profits on my own money and also taking a percentage of the profits for the people I traded for. I traded up to $40 million or $50 million a day at my peak. I did this from 2001 to 2004. I learned about day trading but I also learned a lot about myself and what I was good at, what I was horrible at, and what I was psychotic at. Things that had nothing to do with day trading. Day trading is the best job in the world on the days you make money. You make a trade, then maybe 20 minutes later you are out of the trade with a profit, and for the rest of the day you think about how much money you made. It's the worst job in the world on a bad day. I would make a trade, it would go against me, and then I wanted my heart to stop so my blood would stop thumping so loudly. I did it for years, though, because I was unemployable in every other way. Here's what I learned. All of these lessons I will certainly use today, many years after I stopped day trading. A) You can't predict the future. Everyone thinks they can. But they can't. This applies not just to trading but everything. You could be married for 10 years and the next thing you know you are divorced and you would not have predicted that. You could be healthy all your life and drink your vegetables and exercise and reduce stress, and a year later you could be dead from cancer. You'd have much less stress if you let go of trying to predict the future. You can always seek to increase the odds in your favor. if I don't jump off bridges, for instance, it's more likely I'll be alive a year from now. But certainly a path to unhappiness is thinking the future can be predicted and controlled. B) Hope is not a strategy. If you get to the point where you “hope” you don't get ruined, then you did something wrong beforehand. For instance, if you plan a wedding outside and you don't have a backup plan in case it rains, then you probably mis-planned your wedding, unless you are getting married in a desert. “Hoping” is not a bad thing. I hope that every day my life goes perfectly. But if hoping is the only thing I'm relying on, then it means I didn't really look at all the possible outcomes of something that was important to me. C) Uncertainty is your best friend. A hundred percent of opportunities in life are created because people are uncertain about almost everything in their lives. We are constantly trying to close the enormous gap between the things we are certain about and the things we are uncertain about, and almost every invention, product, Internet service, book, whatever has been created to help us close that gap. Sometimes this is hard. If your husband betrays and leaves you, you often feel like crawling on the floor and burning all the self-help books. They all lied. It's hard to feel “in the now” or to “positive think” when life feels like it's over. I've tried. For me it's too hard. But at the very least you can say…”help me.” You can say it to your close friends. You can say it something inside of yourself. “Help me” is the most powerful, and most forgotten, prayer. D) Taking risks versus reducing risk. Some people take too many risks and they go bankrupt. This happened to me. And sometimes people are too cautious and don't take enough risks. When I first started day trading, I was so afraid of risk that if I had a small profit, I'd end the trade. But then I would take big losses and that would wipe out all my profits. The key is that you can take larger and larger risks if you work on better and better ways to deal with those risks. For instance, I might be able to risk marrying someone if I know she is not a hard-core drug addict who regularly betrays the people she is close to. I can risk driving without a license if I always stay below the speed limit (I know this is a stupid risk, but still). Once you have a method of reducing risks, it's easier to make trades or decisions about anything. E) Diversification. Often I get emails, “I really want ONE job but they don't seem to want me and now I'm miserable. How can I get that job?” Well…you can't. And you're going to be unhappy. You can't wish yourself a job. When I was raising money to day trade, I probably contacted over 1,000 people. When I was starting an Internet business I started over a dozen Internet businesses and watched all of them fail but one. When I was trying to sell my Internet business I contacted over a dozen companies (although Google broke my heart – damn you Google!). When I wanted to get married, I went on lots of dates. Claudia's approach was even smarter – she wouldn't waste time with dinners. She would only go to tea with guys. Within the first 20 seconds you know if you are attracted. So keep it to a tea. F) Say “no.” In day trading, if something is not working out, even if your heart wants it to work out, you have to say “No” and cut your losses. If a business relationship is not working out, don't put more energy and time into it. There is a cognitive bias called “committment bias.” We think because we've already put time and energy (or money) into something that we have to stick with it. But this is just a mental bias. Say no to it. You have to decide every moment if this is the situation you want to be in. Just because you were in the situation a moment ago, or yesterday, or for 10 years, doesn't mean the situation is right for you anymore. G) Health. Day trading pulls everything out of you. It sucks the soul out of your body, blends it up, and then explodes. It doesn't turn into a nice smoothie. It explodes. So you have to take care of yourself. If you don't sleep enough, if you don't eat well, exercise, be around positive people, be grateful for what you have, blah blah blah, you will lose all of your money and go bankrupt. And obviously, this applies to everything else in life. Every day, what small thing can you do to become a slightly better you? The reason we get so attracted to “safe” cubicle jobs is that the pain is more subtle and sneaks up on us. It's not the blender-drama of day trading so the need for health on a daily basis doesn't seem as important. But it is. H) Laughter. The only way to survive is to laugh. There's that saying: “Man makes plans but God laughs.” Well, you might as well be on the same side as God. I) “This is crazy” means you're crazy. I've seen it a million times. Guy makes a trade. The market goes against him. He says “this is crazy” and puts more money into the trade. And then he loses all his money and goes crazy. I've had to talk people off the ledge or tell them to put the gun down. The market is never crazy. The world is never crazy. And I will go so far as to say that your girlfriend who just lied to you about where she spent the night is not crazy. I only care about you. And you're effin' crazy if you thought the world was going to line up any other way than the way it lined up. Tough on you. I know when I feel like, “ugh, this situation is insane” that the first place I need to look is at me. I am insane. J) It doesn't matter if a trade (or a day, or a life) is good or bad. Good and bad days happen. But life is about a billion little moments that add up to all the things around you. If you let one of those moments have too much control then you are bound to be mostly miserable. I was mostly miserable during the period I was day trading. I let that aspect of my life take control. So I stopped focusing on being a good husband, a good father, a good friend, a good anything. All of my other constituencies went to hell. I would have nightmares. I would lose sleep. I would wake up many mornings and go to the church across the street so I could be by myself and pray. What would I pray? “Jesus, please make the markets go in my direction today.” I'm Jewish. Nobody answered my prayers. K) It's never about the money. Every day I get emails like, “Can you show me how to day trade?” “NO!” I know a thousand day traders and only two that won't go bankrupt. So what makes anyone think they will have an edge? How many people listen to me? Zero. How come? Because people are sick of their lives, their relationships, their jobs, and all the lies that have been told to them ever since they learned how to walk. They want freedom from the BS. I get it. Day trading is the dream. You can make enough money to not care. To do it from anywhere. To be happy. It won't work. But people don't want to believe it. Most people think they have that one special something that will make it work for them. And it's true – they do have that one special something. But you can't get there by day trading first. You can skip right to the being happy part. You can skip right to being free. But we never learned that. We were taught we had to do something first to earn freedom. We were taught that suffering was the currency to buy happiness. Okay, go do it. Then cry about it. Then get scared. Then curse the craziness. Then cry more. None of that will make you happy. Then read this blog post again. Not because it will make you happy. But because I like when people read my posts. And laugh.

Snowden Is Not Going To Work At VKontakte


Despite having a very public job offer handed to him last August, Edward Snowden will not be joining Russian social networking website VKontakte (VK), its founder Pavel Durov has confirmed to TechCrunch. Contrary to reports that Snowden's lawyer announced Snowden's employment at VK yesterday, Durov writes that the stories and rumors are untrue. In fact, he told us onstage at TechCrunch Disrupt Europe in Berlin last week that Snowden, whom he views as a personal hero for exposing the NSA's international surveillance, had not reached out about the August offer. Earlier this week, a Russian news agency reported that the whistleblower had secured post-asylum employment with a “major” Russian website, which could mean odnoklassniki.ru, mail.ru, liveinternet.ru and many others. Yandex, which is the top website in Russia, confirmed to The Verge that it had not given Snowden a job. Guess we'll find out which site it actually is soon enough.

Dear Google, What's Wrong With You?


I ask because last weekend, while in San Francisco, I asked Google Maps for “hot chocolate mission” - and was promptly directed to an ARCO station in Fremont, 40 miles away. Similarly, last month I searched for “coffee” while in the Embarcadero Center, one of the denser coffee hotspots in America, and was sent to a Starbucks more than two miles away. And it hasn't escaped my notice that you keep highlighting faraway places with Zagat listings over much closer places without. Now, sure, if you're thinking “hey, you're just abusing your position as a highfalutin tech columnist to make anecdotal complaints here!” - well, you're not entirely wrong. Perk of the position. What can I say? But Google Docs won't save documents, the new Gmail interface still feels like a big step backwards, Gmail Offline keeps crashing on me, Google Hangouts hangs whenever we try to combine text chat and video…and for what it's worth, it's not just me who's wondering what's gone wrong: Pop quiz: name a Google product that existed at this time last year that has improved in the last 12 months.— Laurie Voss (@seldo) October 15, 2013 Don't misunderstand. I've long been one of your bigger fans. Sure, I complained: “Google is in serious decline” a few years ago, but you've managed to turned your mighty aircraft carrier around quite nicely since. Stock at record heights, etc., etc., etc. I don't think you're in decline now. Quite the opposite: I think in certain domains you've become so dominant that you've grown complacent. In fields where you've got real competition - e.g. Android, Chrome - you're as incisive and innovative as ever. Google+ isn't exactly setting the world on fire, but it's probably become an asset rather than a hindrance. And the ambition of Google Glass and your crazy moon-shot stuff like balloon-powered global Internet and self-driving cars (oh, yeah, and immortality) remains awesome. The problem is that in certain fields you hardly need to compete any more. I mean, who competes with Google Maps? Oh, there are plenty of competitors, but who actually competes? Even mighty Apple is perceived as dramatically inferior (although Apple Maps has improved by leaps and bounds since its balky launch.) As for Bing Maps, and Nokia's There, and OpenStreetMaps et al. - forget about it. So if you want to highlight all things Zagat since you acquired them, and downplay all others, who's going to stop you, right? I mean, you sent me to a gas station 40 miles away for hot chocolate, and I just shook my head and took it in stride. It would be way too much work to install and familiarize myself with an entirely different map app, when you're usually mostly good enough. (Also, to be fair, after I complained about you on Twitter, a friend who's a Google employee directed me to Cafe St. Jorge, so I can't rule out the possibility that you were just playing the long and subtle game.) Same with your bread-and-butter search. Even if Bing was better - and I don't for a moment believe that it is - who's actually going to the trouble to find that out? I'd have to compare a multitude of different searches to figure out whether I should switch, and that's way too much work in this modern world. As long as you're perceived as good enough, you don't actually need to get any better. Maybe you will anyways, out of the goodness of your heart, or, more accurately, your aesthetic hunger for purity and perfection - but you won't be pushed there. So of course you slow down and get sloppy. It's not really your fault, Google; it's the fault of your would-be competitors. So, what the heck, since they can't seem to get their collective act together, why not go building barges instead of polishing products? I bet it's a lot more fun. But Google, be careful. IBM grew dominant and became complacent. Microsoft grew dominant, and became complacent. And look what happened to them. Okay, fine, so they're still immensely profitable megacorporations, but they lost the initiative, they no longer dictate the conversation, they're not the ones who build the future any more; they just come and mop up after it's built. That is not the Google way. But you're pretty huge these days, arguably bloated, and middle-aged for a tech company - and while your numbers are great, revenue is a lagging indicator in the technology business. I'm not saying all is lost. Far from it. I'm just saying that, where everyone else seems to see a dominant unstoppable machine, I think I see some distant early warning signs. I hope you see them, too.

Women 2.0, A Media Company Built Around Female Entrepreneurship, Gears Up For Las Vegas


Over the past few years, Women 2.0 has become one of the most reliable places to find stories from female entrepreneurs, successful and otherwise. It has also, according to co-founder and CEO Shaherose Charania, become a profitable business. That's particularly surprising since the Women 2.0 site doesn't run any advertising. Not that Charania said she's completely opposed to the idea (“Maybe we will [run ads] eventually, but it will be thoughtful”). However, she sounded more excited about the company's conferences, and about the different membership plans that it's experimenting with, where readers pay a monthly or annual fee (currently the lower-priced plan costs $20 a month) for access to a combination of online and offline features, such as conference discounts and virtual happy hours. To explain the broader vision, Charania compared Women 2.0 to Vogue. In the same way that Vogue is read by women who are never going to be models or wear all the expensive clothes featured in the magazine, she said many Women 2.0 readers may never start a company, but her goal is to turn entrepreneurship into “something aspirational.” How successful is Women 2.0 at the goal? Well, that's tough to quantify, but Charania did share the results of a recent survey of the site's readers, which suggests that it is reaching a global audience (though it doesn't reveal the size of that audience) - San Francisco and Silicon Valley account for only a combined 30 percent of its readership. And 60 percent of the readers self-identify as entrepreneurs. One important aspect to the site's model, Charania said, is the fact that it lets female entrepreneurs tell their own stories - more than 400 female founders and investors have contributed. At the same time, the Women 2.0 team has grown to seven people, as well. As for the conferences, Charania said the company has settled into a pattern of two bigger events a year, one in San Francisco (which apparently attracts more than 1,500 attendees) and another that travels. The next traveling event, the “Las Vegas Edition” of Women 2.0, is coming up on November 14, with Zappos CEO (and Las Vegas tech proponent) Tony Hsieh just announced as a speaker. With her nutrition startup HealthyOut, Wendy Nguyen was a finalist in the pitch competition at this year's San Francisco conference, but she said she was an attendee of Women 2.0 events long before that - for example, she met her eventual investor Dave McClure at Women 2.0′s New York conference last year. And hey, after being onstage at Women 2.0, Nguyen raised $1.2 million in funding. “Anyone who tells you that they got funded because they were in a pitch competition, that's just silliness - we all know that,” Nguyen said. At the same time, she credited the event for helping her with making important connections, and she described it as “a culmination of doing the right things.” HealthyOut was also onstage at our Disrupt NY conference. The difference between the two events, Nguyen said, is that “there's more of a community aspect at Women 2.0 … They do a great job of promoting female founders.” Oh, and if you're curious about the finalists at the upcoming conferences, here they are (with descriptions provided by Women 2.0). DailyDollar - DailyDollar is a Cloud-based receipting and personalized offer solution. College Appz - CollegeAppz is a “TurboTax for College Admissions,” a college readiness platform built to maximize user data for better school matches for students and improved leads for universities and commercial companies. Admittedly - Admitted.ly is an online college advisory platform that targets high school students early enough to help improve their chances of admission at their ideal universities, and offers tools to make parents' lives and guidance counselors' jobs easier. Traveling Spoon - Traveling Spoon is an online marketplace that connects travelers with vetted, local and authentic food experiences - from homemade meals to cooking classes - in people's homes around the world. WeeSpring - weeSpring helps parents collect advice from their friends about what they need for their family, from strollers and sippy cups to apps and - ultimately - appliances. Abbeypost - AbbeyPost is Etsy for Plus Size…with a proprietary tech twist, connecting the underserved Plus Size shopper directly with indie designers, boutiques and brands. CareBooker - CareBooker is the “OpenTable” for booking family care services, such as babysitting, pet care, tutoring & lessons, and more. CareLulu - CareLuLu is the easiest way for parents to find a daycare or preschool that fits their family's needs through an online marketplace that offers a personalized search, verified parent reviews, photos, and even tuition rates. Reorient Media - Infinite PDF is the latest flagship product of the Infinite Canvas Suite, published by ReOrient Media. Infinite PDF allows you to expand your existing presentations to add dimensionality, transitions and interactivity. Totspot - Totspot is a mobile marketplace for savvy moms to discover, buy and sell new and like-new kids items such as toys, clothes, baby gear and books.

Gillmor Gang: Dynamic Clusters


The Gillmor Gang - John Borthwick, Keith Teare, Kevin Marks, John Taschek, and Steve Gillmor - move further and further toward the Golden Age of Push Notification. What some see as a fragmented sea of apps, others see as a ripe opportunity to unify notifications as the successor to email, social streaming to the core. As Windows gets sucked into the tidal wave of mobility, it's up to individual apps to intermediate themselves into the relentless flow. Out of the soup of retweets, @mentions, and other graph-aware signals, a new hierarchy is presenting itself as an alternative to the conventional email aristocracy. The enterprise is not convinced of the viability of a meritocracy-driven individual contributorship, but luckily nothing else has yet surfaced to rule it out. Meanwhile, the slow iterative thinning of the tablet is fashioning a new template for navigating the new world, swimming against the tide in ecstatic leaps up the stream. @stevegillmor, @borthwick, @kteare, @kevinmarks, @jtaschek Produced and directed by Tina CHase Gillmor @tinagillmor